Saturday, June 14, 2008

ENERGY CRISIS AND HIGH CRUDE OIL PRICE.

This is a very tight situation for the world economy. Crude oil price is floating at around 135 USD per barrel. It may go up further. The accleration is a bit too high for developing countries like India.
The reasons behind it.
According to the New York Times the reasons for the surge ranged from the relentless growth of the economies of China and India to widespread instability in oil-producing regions, including Iraq and Nigeria's delta region. Oil-rich nations are enjoying historic gains and opportunities, while major importers — including China and India, home to a third of the world's population —confront rising economic and social costs.
The growing economies of India and China is not the only reason behind the high price. There are many other factors. The latest surge is mainly due to the decline in U.S oil inventories announced June 4, the announcement of a decline in Russian oil production in May, and recent comments that Mexico expects further meaningful declines in oil production over the rest of this year.
Since September 2003, the total number of open crude oil futures and options contracts rose by 364 percent. Meanwhile the global demand for petroleum rose by 8.2 percent. "So the futures and options market has become more important than the physical supplies in driving the price. Investors are treating oil as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar. Oil markets are part of a negative positive feedback loop in which higher oil prices contribute to higher inflation, which in turn lowers the value of the dollar, which boosts oil prices, and so forth.
It's getting very difficult for companies and countries to boost supply."It is going to be more difficult to grow supply." That's partly because some oil-producing regions, like Mexico and the North Sea, are declining. The Lower 48 states in the U.S. are very mature. Of course there are some growth areas like Brazil and Angola, but the trend is not showing that the overall oil production is likely to go up. The rising demand in Latin America and the middle east is not helping to the cause.
The oil producing countries are not too keen to increase production.They are already getting a lot of revenue through high price. So they don't need to earn revenue through extra volume. If the surge goes on the way it is now, then there will be a point where the demand will drop. The drop in demand will automatically bring down prices. There has already been a marginal decline in the US. Any where else the demand is resilient at this moment. At some point of time the economies will slow down and we might see that the demand is going down everywhere.
In the short run, oil prices are very inelastic: A large change in price produces only a small change in demand. Even If the price goes up overnight, you still have to fill your tank to get to work. However, over the long run, consumers and producers respond to higher oil prices. For example, Americans are driving less and have switched to buying more fuel efficient cars. Higher prices also encourage innovation. Battery technologies are improving so rapidly that the majority of cars sold in 10 years will be all-electric. This would certainly help drive down the price of oil. Supply is also inelastic—it takes a long time to do the exploration, drilling, and refining necessary to boost production in response to higher prices. This in-elasticity of demand and supply means that petroleum prices are very sensitive to relatively small changes in either. This means that prices can fall as steeply has they rose. The world economy can't handle the rising energy prices for too long. When the price of anything gets unbearably high, it discourages demand. The resulting drop in sales, in turn, causes inventories to pile up and the price to come down. This is a bubble which is expanding very fast. But the question is how long it will expand ? Once this bubble bursts then we might see the price settling at a much lower value.

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

FIRE ON THE GROUND

There you are. The young Indian cricket team did what a very few had expected. The mighty Australian team is falling apart. They are down on the mat. Guess who is responsible for it ? Yes, the young Indian team inspired by Sachin, the maestro and Dhoni, the leader. After a thrilling encounter, India got the better of the mighty Aussies and lifted the tri-series trophy for the first time. Some credit should be given to the Indian selectors for showing guts to drop senior players like Ganguly and Dravid. All the young players are brilliant on the field.It really made a huge impact on the outcome. Sachin played two outstanding knocks and they turned the tides for India. He saved all his energy for the finals and delivered when it was required. What he is doing now is probably the most difficult job. He is scoring runs as well as guiding the young batsmen to play under pressure situations. When he retires, may be after three years from now, the batsmen in the team should be good enough to win matches for India. We as a spectator must not get a feeling that Indian batting line up without Sachin is weak.Now its up to him how he fill up the vacuum that would be created by his retirement. Is it too much to ask for ? Probably not. He is SACHIN TENDULKAR and he will definitely do it.From the bowling point of view, the decent fast bowling unit has been converted into a ferocious and a destructive unit. With Piyush Chawla and Harbhajan there is variety in the attack. If you are a cricket follower, then watch out for this team. It has got the potential to become a great Indian cricket team of all time.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

EXTINCTION THREAT ?

What a magnificent creature, the one horned rhinocerous. Recently quite a few of them have been killed by poachers at the Kaziranga National Park. Only for the horn? But what's so special about the horn? What is the use and who need it? This is a great concern for all of us. If poaching continues at this rate then very soon we are going to loose our proud possession. Poaching has been an age old problem for the rhinos here. But it seems that the authority is not very concerned. The time has come for us to think about this seriously. We the common people in this part of the world have the habit of blaming the government and the forest guards, but for how long ? We must learn to take some responsibility upon us. A collective effort is required to face this disaster. But in this case there is little scope for a common person to do something of note. The initiative has to be taken by the government. It will be interesting to see what really is done on this occasion. Hopefully somebody will come up with a concrete plan of action before its too late.

Monday, January 28, 2008

ADAM GILCHRIST, THE LEGEND


The curtains are down all of a sudden. Adam Gilchirst's decision to retire came as a surprise to the cricketing world. But its the nature of all great players to surprise everybody. Now we can call him a legend. He will find himself along side with somebody of the calibre of Sir Vivian Richards. Surely he is the greatest wicket keeper batsman, that the game has seen up to now. Seventeen test hundreds batting at number seven is simply awesome. The very concept of wicket keeping has changed only because of this man. His superb ability with the glove and the bat made keepers all round the world to struggle (apart from Boucher). Every body started to question their batting abilities. Other teams saw lots of new faces for this job but they were no where near to this great player. The world would probably never see another player like Gilchrist because players like him, Ponting, Tendulkar surface only once.

He waited a long time to make his entry because Ian Healy, another great Australian wicket keeper delayed his retirement. But once he retired, Gilchrist got his long deserved opportunity and set all cricket pitches around the world on fire. Wicket keeping alongside batting was taken to new heights. Cricket today have a new standard for this special job. Yes, its the GILCHRIST STATDARD. A young kid who wants to become a wicket keeper finally have an idol to look upon.